PLAYER PROPS BREAKDOWN: HOW TO SPOT VALUE IN MLB PITCHER PROPS
GET STARTED NOW
Stop scrolling Player Props. Open your sportsbook app. Pick one MLB game tonight. You’ll use it for every step below. No game? Refresh the slate. One must be live.
PICK YOUR FIRST PITCHER PROP
Look at the pitcher props. Focus on these three:
1. Strikeouts (K)
2. Innings Pitched (IP)
3. Outs Recorded (usually 18+ or 21+)
Circle the strikeout line. That’s your guinea pig.
GRAB THE TOOLS YOU NEED
Open three tabs:
1. Sportsbook app (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM)
2. Baseball Savant (baseballsavant.mlb.com)
3. Fangraphs (fangraphs.com)
Bookmark both sites. You’ll live here.
FIND THE PITCHER’S RECENT FORM
Type the pitcher’s name into Baseball Savant. Hit “Statcast Pitcher” in the left menu. Scroll to the bottom. Look at the last 15 starts. Note:
– Strikeout rate (K%)
– Whiff rate (Whiff%)
– Called strike + swinging strike rate (CSW%)
Write these numbers down. Underline the highest and lowest.
CHECK THE MATCHUP
Click “Matchup Tool” on Baseball Savant. Enter the pitcher’s name and tonight’s opponent. Look at:
– Opponent’s team strikeout rate (K%)
– Opponent’s team wOBA (weighted on-base average)
– Opponent’s team wRC+ (weighted runs created plus)
Red flags: K% below 20%, wOBA above .320, wRC+ above 105. Green flags: opposite.
DIG INTO THE BATTERS
Click “Lineups” on the sportsbook app. Note the first six batters. Go to Baseball Savant. Search each batter. Check:
– Strikeout rate (K%)
– Whiff rate (Whiff%)
– Chase rate (O-Swing%)
Add up the K% for the top six. Divide by six. That’s your expected K rate for the game.
ADJUST FOR PARK FACTORS
Go to Fangraphs. Click “Park Factors” in the left menu. Find tonight’s ballpark. Look at the “HR” and “K” columns. Multiply the pitcher’s season K% by the park’s K factor. Example: 25% K rate × 1.05 park factor = 26.25% adjusted K rate.
Write the adjusted number next to the original.
COMPARE TO THE LINE
Look at the sportsbook’s strikeout line. Convert it to a percentage. Example: 6.5 strikeouts in 5.5 IP = 6.5 / (5.5 × 3) = 39.4% implied K rate.
Compare it to your adjusted K rate. If your number is higher, the line is undervalued.
CHECK THE VIG
Find the over/under odds. Calculate the vig. Example: -110 over, -110 under = 4.76% vig. Anything above 5% is too high. Skip it.
FIND THE BEST LINE ACROSS BOOKS
Open three more sportsbook apps. Search the same pitcher prop. Note the highest strikeout line. Example: FanDuel has 6.5, DraftKings has 7, BetMGM has 6.5. DraftKings is the best.
LOCK IN THE BET
Deposit $50 if you haven’t. Bet $10 on the over. Use the best line. Take a screenshot. Close the app.
TRACK THE GAME LIVE
Open MLB Gameday or the sportsbook’s live bet tracker. Watch the strikeouts pile up. Don’t touch the app. Let it ride.
REVIEW AFTER THE GAME
Check the result. Write down:
– Actual strikeouts
– Actual innings pitched
– Whether you won or lost
Do this every time. No exceptions.
FIND VALUE IN INNINGS PITCHED PROPS
Go back to Baseball Savant. Look at the pitcher’s last 15 starts. Note:
– Average innings pitched
– Games with 6+ IP
– Games with 5 or fewer IP
Calculate the percentage of games with 6+ IP. Example: 10 out of 15 = 66.7%.
CHECK THE LINE
Find the innings pitched prop. Example: 5.5 IP. Convert to a percentage. 5.5 IP = 66.7% of 8.1 IP (average start). Compare to your calculated percentage.
If your number is higher, the line is undervalued.
ADJUST FOR BULLPEN
Go to Fangraphs. Click “Team” then “Bullpen.” Find the pitcher’s team. Look at:
– Bullpen ERA
– Bullpen FIP
– Bullpen xFIP
Bad bullpen? Pitcher more likely to go deep. Good bullpen? Pitcher might get pulled early.
FACTOR IN THE MANAGER
Google the team’s manager. Search for “[Manager Name] quick hooks.” Example: “Dave Roberts quick hooks.” If the manager pulls pitchers early, adjust your percentage down.
LOCK IN THE BET
Find the best line. Bet $10 on the over. Track the game live.
SPOT VALUE IN OUTS RECORDED PROPS
Look at the outs recorded prop. Example: 18+ outs. Convert to innings: 18 outs = 6 IP.
Go back to the pitcher’s last 15 starts. Count games with 6+ IP. Calculate the percentage.
CHECK THE LINE
Find the implied probability. Example: -120 odds = 54.5% implied probability. Compare to your calculated percentage.
If your number is higher, bet the over.
ADJUST FOR DEFENSE
Go to Fangraphs. Click “Team” then “Defense.” Find the pitcher’s team. Look at:
– Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)
– Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR)
Bad defense? More hits, fewer outs. Good defense? More outs.
LOCK IN THE BET
Find the best line. Bet $10 on the over.